From: www.businessinsider.com
10 Major Rebranding Disasters And What You Should Learn From Them
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Exponential Smothing Techniques | ||||||
Ft=αD(t-1) + (1-α)Ft-1 | ||||||
α=0.1 | ||||||
Time Period | Sales(Di) | Fi | (Fi-Di) | Σ(Fi-Di) | Σ│Fi-Di│ | Average Di |
1 | 1084 | 1084 | 0 | |||
2 | 1056 | 1084 | 28 | |||
3 | 1090 | 1081.2 | -8.8 | |||
4 | 953 | 1082.08 | 129.08 | |||
5 | 858 | 1069.172 | 211.172 | |||
6 | 868 | 1048.055 | 180.0548 | |||
7 | 1034 | 1030.049 | -3.95068 | |||
8 | 1088 | 1030.444 | -57.555612 | |||
9 | 1069 | 1036.2 | -32.800051 | |||
10 | 856 | 1039.48 | 183.479954 | |||
11 | 876 | 1021.132 | 145.131959 | |||
12 | 796 | 1006.619 | 210.618763 | 1704.671 | 2395.544 | 937.041 |
13 | 1023 | 985.5569 | -37.443113 | |||
14 | 1003 | 989.3012 | -13.698802 | |||
15 | 1036 | 990.6711 | -45.328922 | |||
16 | 835 | 995.204 | 160.20397 | |||
17 | 747 | 979.1836 | 232.183573 | |||
18 | 856 | 955.9652 | 99.965216 | |||
19 | 1008 | 945.9687 | -62.031306 | |||
20 | 1036 | 952.1718 | -83.828175 | |||
21 | 920 | 960.5546 | 40.5546425 | |||
22 | 805 | 956.4992 | 151.499178 | |||
23 | 816 | 941.3493 | 125.34926 | |||
24 | 776 | 928.8143 | 152.814334 | |||
25 | X | 913.5329 | X | |||
MAD | 99.8143333 | |||||
CV | 12.8626718 | |||||
BIAS | 71.02796 | |||||
Exponential Smothing Techniques | ||||||
Ft=αD(t-1) + (1-α)Ft-1 | ||||||
α=0.2 | ||||||
Time Period | Sales(Di) | Fi | (Fi-Di) | Σ(Fi-Di) | Σ│Fi-Di│ | Di |
1 | 1084 | 1084 | 0 | |||
2 | 1056 | 1084 | 28 | |||
3 | 1090 | 1078.4 | -11.6 | |||
4 | 953 | 1080.72 | 127.72 | |||
5 | 858 | 1055.176 | 197.176 | |||
6 | 868 | 1015.741 | 147.7408 | |||
7 | 1034 | 986.1926 | -47.80736 | |||
8 | 1088 | 995.7541 | -92.245888 | |||
9 | 1069 | 1014.203 | -54.79671 | |||
10 | 856 | 1025.163 | 169.162632 | |||
11 | 876 | 991.3301 | 115.330105 | |||
12 | 796 | 968.2641 | 172.264084 | 1073.695 | 2368.9569 | 937.041 |
13 | 1023 | 933.8113 | -89.188733 | |||
14 | 1003 | 951.649 | -51.350986 | |||
15 | 1036 | 961.9192 | -74.080789 | |||
16 | 835 | 976.7354 | 141.735369 | |||
17 | 747 | 948.3883 | 201.388295 | |||
18 | 856 | 908.1106 | 52.1106361 | |||
19 | 1008 | 897.6885 | -110.31149 | |||
20 | 1036 | 919.7508 | -116.24919 | |||
21 | 920 | 943.0006 | 23.0006457 | |||
22 | 805 | 938.4005 | 133.400517 | |||
23 | 816 | 911.7204 | 95.7204132 | |||
24 | 776 | 892.5763 | 116.576331 | |||
25 | X | 869.2611 | X | |||
MAD | 98.7065375 | |||||
CV | 10.5338547 | |||||
BIAS | 44.73728 | |||||
Exponential Smothing Techniques | ||||||
Ft=αD(t-1) + (1-α)Ft-1 | ||||||
α=0.3 | ||||||
Time Period | Sales(Di) | Fi | (Fi-Di) | Σ(Fi-Di) | Σ│Fi-Di│ | Di |
1 | 1084 | 1084 | 0 | |||
2 | 1056 | 1084 | 28 | |||
3 | 1090 | 1075.6 | -14.4 | |||
4 | 953 | 1079.92 | 126.92 | |||
5 | 858 | 1041.844 | 183.844 | |||
6 | 868 | 986.6908 | 118.6908 | |||
7 | 1034 | 951.0836 | -82.91644 | |||
8 | 1088 | 975.9585 | -112.04151 | |||
9 | 1069 | 1009.571 | -59.429056 | |||
10 | 856 | 1027.4 | 171.399661 | |||
11 | 876 | 975.9798 | 99.9797628 | |||
12 | 796 | 945.9858 | 149.985834 | 795.6667 | 2381.1651 | 937.041 |
13 | 1023 | 900.9901 | -122.00992 | |||
14 | 1003 | 937.5931 | -65.406941 | |||
15 | 1036 | 957.2151 | -78.784859 | |||
16 | 835 | 980.8506 | 145.850599 | |||
17 | 747 | 937.0954 | 190.095419 | |||
18 | 856 | 880.0668 | 24.0667934 | |||
19 | 1008 | 872.8468 | -135.15324 | |||
20 | 1036 | 913.3927 | -122.60727 | |||
21 | 920 | 950.1749 | 30.1749101 | |||
22 | 805 | 941.1224 | 136.122437 | |||
23 | 816 | 900.2857 | 84.285706 | |||
24 | 776 | 875 | 98.9999942 | |||
25 | X | 845.3 | X | |||
MAD | 99.2152125 | |||||
CV | 10.58814 | |||||
BIAS | 33.15278 | |||||
Exponential Smothing Techniques | ||||||
Ft=αD(t-1) + (1-α)Ft-1 | ||||||
α=0.4 | ||||||
Time Period | Sales(Di) | Fi | (Fi-Di) | Σ(Fi-Di) | Σ│Fi-Di│ | Di |
1 | 1084 | 1084 | 0 | |||
2 | 1056 | 1084 | 28 | |||
3 | 1090 | 1072.8 | -17.2 | |||
4 | 953 | 1079.68 | 126.68 | |||
5 | 858 | 1029.008 | 171.008 | |||
6 | 868 | 960.6048 | 92.6048 | |||
7 | 1034 | 923.5629 | -110.43712 | |||
8 | 1088 | 967.7377 | -120.26227 | |||
9 | 1069 | 1015.843 | -53.157363 | |||
10 | 856 | 1037.106 | 181.105582 | |||
11 | 876 | 964.6633 | 88.6633492 | |||
12 | 796 | 929.198 | 133.19801 | |||
13 | 1023 | 875.9188 | -147.08119 | 643.3754 | 2366.088 | 937.041 |
14 | 1003 | 934.7513 | -68.248717 | |||
15 | 1036 | 962.0508 | -73.94923 | |||
16 | 835 | 991.6305 | 156.630462 | |||
17 | 747 | 928.9783 | 181.978277 | |||
18 | 856 | 856.187 | 0.18696633 | |||
19 | 1008 | 856.1122 | -151.88782 | |||
20 | 1036 | 916.8673 | -119.13269 | |||
21 | 920 | 964.5204 | 44.5203847 | |||
22 | 805 | 946.7122 | 141.712231 | |||
23 | 816 | 890.0273 | 74.0273385 | |||
24 | 776 | 860.4164 | 84.4164031 | |||
25 | X | 826.6498 | X | |||
MAD | 98.587 | |||||
CV | 10.5210978 | |||||
BIAS | 26.80731 | |||||
Exponential Smothing Techniques | ||||||
Ft=αD(t-1) + (1-α)Ft-1 | ||||||
α=0.5 | ||||||
Time Period | Sales(Di) | Fi | (Fi-Di) | Σ(Fi-Di) | Σ│Fi-Di│ | Di |
1 | 1084 | 1084 | 0 | |||
2 | 1056 | 1084 | 28 | |||
3 | 1090 | 1070 | -20 | |||
4 | 953 | 1080 | 127 | |||
5 | 858 | 1016.5 | 158.5 | |||
6 | 868 | 937.25 | 69.25 | |||
7 | 1034 | 902.625 | -131.375 | |||
8 | 1088 | 968.3125 | -119.6875 | |||
9 | 1069 | 1028.156 | -40.84375 | |||
10 | 856 | 1048.578 | 192.578125 | |||
11 | 876 | 952.2891 | 76.2890625 | |||
12 | 796 | 914.1445 | 118.144531 | 545.1074 | 2354.721 | 937.041 |
13 | 1023 | 855.0723 | -167.92773 | |||
14 | 1003 | 939.0361 | -63.963867 | |||
15 | 1036 | 971.0181 | -64.981934 | |||
16 | 835 | 1003.509 | 168.509033 | |||
17 | 747 | 919.2545 | 172.254517 | |||
18 | 856 | 833.1273 | -22.872742 | |||
19 | 1008 | 844.5636 | -163.43637 | |||
20 | 1036 | 926.2818 | -109.71819 | |||
21 | 920 | 981.1409 | 61.1409073 | |||
22 | 805 | 950.5705 | 145.570454 | |||
23 | 816 | 877.7852 | 61.7852268 | |||
24 | 776 | 846.8926 | 70.8926134 | |||
25 | X | 811.4463 | X | |||
MAD | 98.113375 | |||||
CV | 10.470553 | |||||
BIAS | 22.71281 | |||||
Exponential Smothing Techniques | ||||||
Ft=αD(t-1) + (1-α)Ft-1 | ||||||
α=0.6 | ||||||
Time Period | Sales(Di) | Fi | (Fi-Di) | Σ(Fi-Di) | Σ│Fi-Di│ | Di |
1 | 1084 | 1084 | 0 | |||
2 | 1056 | 1084 | 28 | |||
3 | 1090 | 1067.2 | -22.8 | |||
4 | 953 | 1080.88 | 127.88 | |||
5 | 858 | 1004.152 | 146.152 | |||
6 | 868 | 916.4608 | 48.4608 | |||
7 | 1034 | 887.3843 | -146.61568 | |||
8 | 1088 | 975.3537 | -112.64627 | |||
9 | 1069 | 1042.941 | -26.058509 | |||
10 | 856 | 1058.577 | 202.576596 | |||
11 | 876 | 937.0306 | 61.0306386 | |||
12 | 796 | 900.4123 | 104.412255 | |||
13 | 1023 | 837.7649 | -185.2351 | 474.0228 | 2300.624 | 937.041 |
14 | 1003 | 948.906 | -54.094039 | |||
15 | 1036 | 981.3624 | -54.637616 | |||
16 | 835 | 1014.145 | 179.144954 | |||
17 | 747 | 906.658 | 159.657981 | |||
18 | 856 | 810.8632 | -45.136807 | |||
19 | 1008 | 837.9453 | -170.05472 | |||
20 | 1036 | 939.9781 | -96.021889 | |||
21 | 920 | 997.5912 | 77.5912443 | |||
22 | 805 | 951.0365 | 146.036498 | |||
23 | 816 | 863.4146 | 47.4145991 | |||
24 | 776 | 834.9658 | 58.9658396 | |||
25 | X | 799.5863 | X | |||
MAD | 95.8593333 | |||||
CV | 10.2300042 | |||||
BIAS | 19.75095 | |||||
Exponential Smothing Techniques | ||||||
Ft=αD(t-1) + (1-α)Ft-1 | ||||||
α=0.7 | ||||||
Time Period | Sales(Di) | Fi | (Fi-Di) | Σ(Fi-Di) | Σ│Fi-Di│ | Di |
1 | 1084 | 1084 | 0 | |||
2 | 1056 | 1084 | 28 | |||
3 | 1090 | 1064.4 | -25.6 | |||
4 | 953 | 1082.32 | 129.32 | |||
5 | 858 | 991.796 | 133.796 | |||
6 | 868 | 898.1388 | 30.1388 | |||
7 | 1034 | 877.0416 | -156.95836 | |||
8 | 1088 | 986.9125 | -101.08751 | |||
9 | 1069 | 1057.674 | -11.326252 | |||
10 | 856 | 1065.602 | 209.602124 | |||
11 | 876 | 918.8806 | 42.8806373 | |||
12 | 796 | 888.8642 | 92.8641912 | |||
13 | 1023 | 823.8593 | -199.14074 | 418.7695 | 2210.2346 | 937.041 |
14 | 1003 | 963.2578 | -39.742223 | |||
15 | 1036 | 991.0773 | -44.922667 | |||
16 | 835 | 1022.523 | 187.5232 | |||
17 | 747 | 891.257 | 144.25696 | |||
18 | 856 | 790.2771 | -65.722912 | |||
19 | 1008 | 836.2831 | -171.71687 | |||
20 | 1036 | 956.4849 | -79.515062 | |||
21 | 920 | 1012.145 | 92.1454814 | |||
22 | 805 | 947.6436 | 142.643644 | |||
23 | 816 | 847.7931 | 31.7930933 | |||
24 | 776 | 825.5379 | 49.537928 | |||
25 | X | 790.8614 | X | |||
MAD | 92.0931083 | |||||
CV | 9.82807672 | |||||
BIAS | 17.44873 | |||||
Exponential Smothing Techniques | ||||||
Ft=αD(t-1) + (1-α)Ft-1 | ||||||
α=0.8 | ||||||
Time Period | Sales(Di) | Fi | (Fi-Di) | Σ(Fi-Di) | Σ│Fi-Di│ | Di |
1 | 1084 | 1084 | 0 | |||
2 | 1056 | 1084 | -28 | |||
3 | 1090 | 1061.6 | 28.4 | |||
4 | 953 | 1084.32 | -131.32 | |||
5 | 858 | 979.264 | -121.264 | |||
6 | 868 | 882.2528 | -14.2528 | |||
7 | 1034 | 870.8506 | 163.14944 | |||
8 | 1088 | 1001.37 | 86.629888 | |||
9 | 1069 | 1070.674 | -1.6740224 | |||
10 | 856 | 1069.335 | -213.3348 | |||
11 | 876 | 898.667 | -22.666961 | |||
12 | 796 | 880.5334 | -84.533392 | -374.2 | 2097.857 | 937.041 |
13 | 1023 | 812.9067 | 210.093322 | |||
14 | 1003 | 980.9813 | 22.0186643 | |||
15 | 1036 | 998.5963 | 37.4037329 | |||
16 | 835 | 1028.519 | -193.51925 | |||
17 | 747 | 873.7039 | -126.70385 | |||
18 | 856 | 772.3408 | 83.6592299 | |||
19 | 1008 | 839.2682 | 168.731846 | |||
20 | 1036 | 974.2536 | 61.7463692 | |||
21 | 920 | 1023.651 | -103.65073 | |||
22 | 805 | 940.7301 | -135.73015 | |||
23 | 816 | 832.146 | -16.146029 | |||
24 | 776 | 819.2292 | -43.229206 | |||
25 | X | 784.6458 | X | |||
MAD | 87.4107083 | |||||
CV | 9.32837606 | |||||
BIAS | -15.5914 | |||||
Exponential Smothing Techniques | ||||||
Ft=αD(t-1) + (1-α)Ft-1 | ||||||
α=0.9 | ||||||
Time Period | Sales(Di) | Fi | (Fi-Di) | Σ(Fi-Di) | Σ│Fi-Di│ | Di |
1 | 1084 | 1084 | 0 | |||
2 | 1056 | 1084 | 28 | |||
3 | 1090 | 1058.8 | -31.2 | |||
4 | 953 | 1086.88 | 133.88 | |||
5 | 858 | 966.388 | 108.388 | |||
6 | 868 | 868.8388 | 0.8388 | |||
7 | 1034 | 868.0839 | -165.91612 | |||
8 | 1088 | 1017.408 | -70.591612 | |||
9 | 1069 | 1080.941 | 11.9408388 | |||
10 | 856 | 1070.194 | 214.194084 | |||
11 | 876 | 877.4194 | 1.41940839 | |||
12 | 796 | 876.1419 | 80.1419408 | |||
13 | 1023 | 804.0142 | -218.98581 | 337.7598 | 1989.779 | 937.041 |
14 | 1003 | 1001.101 | -1.8985806 | |||
15 | 1036 | 1002.81 | -33.189858 | |||
16 | 835 | 1032.681 | 197.681014 | |||
17 | 747 | 854.7681 | 107.768101 | |||
18 | 856 | 757.7768 | -98.22319 | |||
19 | 1008 | 846.1777 | -161.82232 | |||
20 | 1036 | 991.8178 | -44.182232 | |||
21 | 920 | 1031.582 | 111.581777 | |||
22 | 805 | 931.1582 | 126.158178 | |||
23 | 816 | 817.6158 | 1.61581777 | |||
24 | 776 | 816.1616 | 40.1615818 | |||
25 | X | 780.0162 | X | |||
MAD | 82.9074583 | |||||
CV | 8.8477941 | |||||
BIAS | 14.07333 |